(July 15): Japan’s 10-year government bond yield touched the highest level since 2008, increasing the risk that turmoil in the debt market will spill over into higher borrowing costs for businesses and consumers.
Tuesday’s modest move of 2.5 basis points in the 10-year yield — to 1.595% — is a reminder that it’s not just bonds of 20 to 40 years that are under pressure, though the most extreme moves have been in these super-long maturities.
The upward shift in yields comes amid concerns that government spending is likely to increase in the wake of an upper house election on July 20. Opinion polls suggest the ruling bloc led by Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party may struggle to win a majority. The LDP itself is looking to cash handouts to win voters and opposition parties are eyeing lower taxes.
Yuichi Kodama, economist at Meiji Yasuda Research Institute, said the 10-year bond yields are important because they drive fixed mortgage rates and would have a significant impact on the real economy.
Atsushi Takeda, chief economist at Itochu Research Institute, said that businesses broadly don’t take on debt in the super-long end, meaning it has limited importance for the real economy.
“But we are starting to see a rise in 10-year bond yields due to concerns over fiscal health and that’s something we must keep a close eye on,” Takeda said. While the result of the upper house election is hard to predict, “opposition parties are calling for a cut in the sales tax so if they win, fiscal anxiety will stay. If Ishiba’s LDP wins, investors are probably back to buying bonds.”
The rise in borrowing costs in Japan comes despite the move by the Ministry of Finance to cut back on issuance of super-long bonds. Some major life insurers are also shunning super-long bonds, leaving a gap in demand as the nation’s central bank gradually pares back its debt purchases.
Long-term government bonds are also falling globally amid worries that governments around the world are spending more than they can afford.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has said the nation’s super-long yields have limited impacts on the real economy compared to shorter-term debt. Yet he has also said he will carefully monitor developments.
“Ueda is currently downplaying the spike in super-long yields, but I’m sure he’s watching the situation closely,” Kodama said. “He’s avoiding explicit comments because any statement could be interpreted as signalling market intervention or as a threshold for intervention.”
– The Edge
